The reason the US didn't foresee Pearl Harbor, Stalin didn't believe Hitler would invade the Soviet Union, the US didn't foresee India's nuclear tests, etc. is not for lack of information. It is about the blindnesses that occur on this
side in the processing of information, the inability or
unwillingness to yield one's assumptions to think like one's adversary, and the moving of such insights within the bureaucracy

The uniformly brilliant freelance journalist and analyst , Laura Rozen, on
her blog war and peice. http://www.warandpiece.com/